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Home / Company / Kalshi

Kalshi

Last Updated December 1, 2025

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated financial exchange that lists binary event contracts, allowing users to trade on whether real-world events will occur across categories such as elections, sports, macroeconomic indicators, weather, and entertainment. Contracts are priced from $0.01 to $0.99 and pay out $1 if the specified event occurs, turning probabilities about the future into tradeable assets. The platform targets both retail and institutional participants who want direct exposure to event outcomes for speculation, hedging, and information discovery.
Company Overview: Kalshi
Kalshi sits at the intersection of regulated derivatives, sports betting, and alternative data, with a structural tailwind from growing global interest in prediction markets and event-driven trading. As the first and primary CFTC-designated exchange for event contracts, it combines regulatory legitimacy with rapid growth in volumes, a reported multi-hundred-million-dollar net revenue run-rate, and a fast-rising private valuation now around $11B. Its investor base spans top-tier venture firms and strategic partners, and recent partnerships with mainstream financial and consumer platforms position Kalshi as a potential core infrastructure layer for trading and pricing event risk worldwide.
Investment Highlights
  • Pioneer in Regulated Event Contracts: First and leading U.S. exchange approved by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market specifically for event contracts, giving it a unique position versus offshore and unregulated prediction venues.
  • Explosive Revenue and Volume Growth: Revenue is estimated to have grown from roughly $1.8M in 2023 to ~$24M in 2024 (+1,200%+), with 2025 investor updates indicating a $600–700M annualized net revenue run-rate driven by surging trading volume.
  • Scale in Trading Activity: Monthly trading volume has surpassed $1B, and Kalshi reports capturing about 62% of global prediction-market volume despite a relatively short operating history.
  • Strong Capitalization and Tier-1 Investor Base: Approximately $1.7B in total funding across equity and debt from investors including Sequoia, CapitalG, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Anthos, Neo, and others, plus notable individual and strategic backers.
  • Category Expansion Beyond Elections: After a 2024 election-driven spike, Kalshi has shifted volume heavily into sports, which now represents the majority of activity, alongside markets in macroeconomics, crypto, entertainment, and other real-world events.
  • Platform for Partners and Institutions: Integration paths via APIs and partnerships with platforms such as Robinhood and Coinbase position Kalshi as underlying infrastructure powering event-contract products for larger financial and crypto ecosystems.
  • Global Ambition: Following a 2025 funding ramp, Kalshi has announced expansion into 140+ countries and an intent to become a global hub for pricing event risk, while keeping its core exchange built around CFTC-regulated infrastructure.
Product & Technology Leadership
  • CFTC-Regulated Event Contract Exchange: Core platform lists binary Yes/No contracts on clearly defined real-world questions (e.g., election outcomes, inflation prints, sports results), priced between $0.01 and $0.99 with $1 settlement, matching counterparties in an order book model rather than taking the opposing side like a sportsbook.
  • Sports, Politics, and Macro Categories: Product catalog spans U.S. elections and congressional control, interest-rate and inflation releases, sports outcomes, crypto and equity-related events, and “culture” markets, with sports now accounting for a large majority of recent trading volume.
  • Market Data and Analytics Stack: Kalshi exposes historical and real-time market data via its Market Data & Insights portal and APIs, enabling users and partners to analyze tick-level event probabilities, open interest, and volumes—creating an alternative data asset around event risk pricing.
  • APIs and Institutional Connectivity: The exchange supports API-based trading and market-making, with integrations that allow external platforms (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase) to embed CFTC-regulated event contracts or prediction markets into their own products while leveraging Kalshi’s matching engine and compliance stack.
  • Third-Party Data Integrations: For certain markets, Kalshi partners with specialized data providers—such as StockX for contracts tied to sneaker and collectible prices—to define objective settlement criteria and automate event resolution.
  • Exchange Economics and Liquidity Programs: Maker-taker fee schedule, liquidity rebates, and incentives for professional market makers are designed to deepen order books and support tight spreads across thousands of concurrently listed event markets.
 Market Position & Strategic Advantage
  • Regulated Category Leader: Positioned as the leading CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange in the U.S., Kalshi differentiates itself from offshore or crypto-native prediction markets by emphasizing federal regulatory oversight, fiat access, and institutional compatibility.
  • Competition with Polymarket and Sportsbooks: Competes directly with crypto prediction markets like Polymarket and indirectly with sports betting operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel, while offering a distinct exchange model centered on binary contracts that can cover any event category, not just sports.
  • Expansion from Elections into Sports and Everyday Events: After the 2024 U.S. presidential cycle, Kalshi has intentionally shifted focus toward fast-resolving sports markets and everyday events to sustain high-frequency engagement and diversify volume beyond infrequent political cycles.
  • Global Footprint Ambitions: The company has announced expansion to more than 140 countries alongside its Series D and subsequent rounds, framing its long-term strategy as building a global marketplace for event risk while maintaining CFTC-regulated infrastructure at the core.
  • Platform and Partner Strategy: By powering event contracts for major fintech and crypto platforms and offering rich market data, Kalshi aims to be the infrastructure layer others build on rather than solely a standalone retail brand.
  • Regulatory Engagement as Strategic Asset: Active litigation and engagement with the CFTC and federal courts around election and sports markets have helped define the regulatory contours of event contracts, reinforcing Kalshi’s role as a central actor in shaping U.S. policy for this asset class.
Financial Opportunity
  • Valuation Step-Ups: Valuation has risen from around $2B after a $185M Series C in June 2025 to approximately $5B with a $300M Series D in October 2025, and then to roughly $11B following a $1B round in November 2025, reflecting rapidly increasing investor conviction in regulated prediction markets.
  • Revenue Scale and Growth: Sacra estimates revenue of about $24M in 2024, up more than 12x from ~$1.8M in 2023, driven by a surge in trading volume from ~$183M to ~$1.97B; by late 2025, the company reportedly told investors it is on a $600–700M net revenue run-rate.
  • Volume and Market Share: With monthly trading volumes clearing $1B and a reported 62% share of global prediction-market activity, Kalshi is already operating at meaningful exchange scale while the category remains early in mainstream adoption.
  • Large and Expanding TAM: The addressable opportunity spans U.S. sports betting (a ~$30B and growing market), political and macroeconomic event hedging, and monetization of event-derived data feeds, collectively representing a multi-tens-of-billions to multi-hundred-billion-dollar long-term opportunity.
  • Institutional and Platform Revenue Streams: Beyond retail trading fees, revenue potential includes institutional trading, white-label or embedded prediction products for platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, and premium access to proprietary event-probability data sets.
  • Capital Efficiency of Exchange Model: Once regulatory, technology, and market-making infrastructure are in place, incremental trading volume has low marginal cost, creating leverage for high incremental margins as volumes and categories scale.
Company Snapshot

Sector: Regulated event-contract / prediction-market exchange (event-based derivatives)

Founded: 2018

Headquarters: New York, New York, USA

Leadership: CEO & Co-founder Tarek Mansour; Co-founder & COO Luana Lopes Lara

Employees: ~200 (late 2025, estimated)

Regulatory Status: First CFTC-approved Designated Contract Market (DCM) dedicated to event contracts in the U.S.

Valuation: ≈$11B post-money following a $1B round in November 2025

Total Funding: ≈$1.7B across equity and debt as of late 2025 (estimated, including $185M Series C, $300M Series D, and $1B latest round)

ARR / Revenue Scale: Sacra estimates ~$24M revenue in 2024 (up from $1.8M in 2023), and reports that Kalshi told investors it is on a $600–700M annualized net revenue run-rate as of November 2025

Trading Scale: Exceeds $1B in monthly trading volume and has reported ~62% share of global prediction-market volume in recent months

Business Model: Two-sided exchange for binary event contracts with maker-taker fee structure, serving retail and institutional traders, plus data and API-based integrations

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Investment in private companies involves substantial risk and is suitable only for sophisticated investors who can bear the loss of their entire investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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About Kalshi

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange founded in 2018 that has turned trading on real-world outcomes—elections, sports, macro data, weather, and entertainment—into a scalable, exchange-style business with rapidly growing volumes and revenues. It combines first-mover regulatory status as a Designated Contract Market with strong product-market fit, reflected in estimated 2024 revenue of ~$24M growing more than tenfold year-on-year and a late-2025 net revenue run-rate reportedly in the $600–700M range, supported by monthly volumes above $1B and majority share of global prediction-market activity. Backed by top-tier investors such as Sequoia, Paradigm, CapitalG, and Andreessen Horowitz and now valued around $11B after a $1B round, Kalshi is positioned as the reference infrastructure for regulated prediction markets and event risk, with upside across trading fees, embedded products for major platforms, and monetization of event-probability data as the asset class matures.